Braden Stokes2009 Tour de France Preview
July 4th 2009 07:01
One of the world’s great sporting events begins tonight in what shapes as one of the most intriguing races in its epic 105 year history. While doping continues to cast a damming shadow over the sport and its competitors, the return of Lance Armstrong and race favourite Alberto Contador will no doubt captivate cycling fans across the globe.
What makes this edition of the tour so fascinating is the planning of the stages to hopefully keep the contest alive right until the end. Mount Ventoux on the penultimate day will no doubt be the highlight along with the return of the Team Time Trial and visits into Italy and Spain.
Predictions
Predicting the winner of a three week stage race and especially the Tour De France is near on impossible. I will however throw up some names that will at some stage during the race loom large.
Maillot Jaune (Yellow Jersey – Overall Winner)
Lance Armstrong (Astana) – The Boss is back! Lance is out of retirement and looking for an eighth title. Surely his age and the fact he has spent time out of the game will count against him but you dismiss Lance at your peril. He looked to be rounding into some solid form during the second week of the Giro (finishing 12th) and will definitely look to take over from teammate Contador if he slips up. Will be looking for revenge on Ventoux!
Alberto Contador (Astana) – Logical race favourite and is the premier cyclist in the world. A great climber, he has now conquered all the grand tours and the prestigious Paris-Nice. Very aggressive in the mountains and backed by the strongest team (Armstrong, Leipheimer, Kloden, Zubeldia and Popovych), he only has to get on top of his impatience that can sometimes see him make rookie mistakes.
Carlos Sastre (Cervelo Test Team) – Last year’s winner but perhaps not in the same class as some others. His stunning win on Alpe d’Huez set up his tour victory last year, but he has now changed teams and can be susceptible during time trials. Not sure his team is that strong (especially without Simon Gerrans) so it will be interesting to see how he goes.
Cadel Evans (Silence Lotto) – Runner up twice in a team considered weaker than its competitors. Evans knows how to consistently be right up there in the GC but it remains to be seen whether he has the ‘X-factor’ to be a tour champ. Skipped the Giro to follow his normal lead up for the race and is said to be in great form. Maybe could be a factor in the time trials but with little to no help in the mountains (teammate Thomas Dekker has already tested positive) it’s tough to see him on the top step of the podium.
Andy Schlek (Saxo Bank) – Youngest Schlek brother and winner of the white jersey (best young rider) last year, I really like his chances over the three weeks. Looked very strong in the mountains (maybe could have won the Alpe d’Huez climb but for team orders) last year and he isn’t bad in the time trials. Another positive is the fact he rides for a very strong team that took the title last year.
Denis Menchov (Rabobank) – Won the Giro d’Italia this year and was third in this race last year. The Russian will no doubt loom as the winner at some point. Very good in the Time Trial and climbing, Menchov is a very good overall rider. Will be strong in the Pyrenees but needs to be more consistent to take overall honours.
I see the winner coming from the names above. Definitely Contador is the man but if he isn’t feeling up to it look for Lance to quickly assume team leader status and aim for his eighth title. Apart from the above guys, look for Mick Rogers (Columbia-Highroad), Levi Leipheimer (Astana), Frank Schlek (Saxo Bank) and Christian Vande Velde (Garmin – Slipstream) to also ride well.
So to put it all on the line I’m selecting.
1. Alberto Contador
2. Andy Schlek
3. Cadel Evans
4. Denis Menchov
5. Lance Armstrong
Stages to watch
Stage One – Monaco Time Trial (Saturday 4 July) 15.5km
This year sees the return of the prologue (technically not a prologue but close enough for me!). Using part of the Formula One circuit and main GC contenders will look to flex their muscle early. Starting by the sea, the course includes some steep climbs and tricky hairpin turns. Maybe time trial specialist Fabian Cancellara can wear yellow or even Evans or Menchov?
Stage Four – Team Time Trial (Tuesday 7 July) 39km
Finally the Team Time Trial (TTT) is back at the tour. After a three year absence this year’s TTT is quite short, with the finishing time of the fifth rider (teams start with nine) counting. The course is apparently quite technical and will sort out the good teams from the poor. Obviously the Astana team would be favourites but don’t discount Saxo Bank, Garmin (who regard this as high priority) or even Liquigas.
Stage Seven – Barcelona to Andorre Arcalis (Friday 10 July) 224km
After entering Spanish territory the day before, the peloton takes on its first major mountain stage which also happens to be the longest. No doubt the temperature will be very high so while the tour may not be won on this stage it could definitely be lost. The GC contenders will have to be on their game to make sure they don’t lose early time to their rivals. Maybe a stage for Andy or Frank Schlek?
Stage Four – Colmar to Besancon (Saturday 18 July) 199km
Last flat stage before the final sprint along the Champs-Elysees. The finish is wide which will allow for a big bunch sprint ideally suited to flying machine Mark Cavendish. As its now well into second week some of the struggling teams my look to get in a breakaway to salvage something. Look for Cavendish, Thor Hushovd, Oscar Freire, Allan Davis or even Daniele Bennati.
Stage Twenty – Montelimar to Mont Ventoux (Saturday 25 July) 167km
While the Individual Time Trial on Stage 18 will be very important, this stage looms as the decider. Finishing at the summit of the dreaded Mount Ventoux, which includes gradients of over 9% throughout the 21.1km climb, the winner here will no doubt earn their victory. Armstrong has never won here and will look to conquer ‘the bald mountain’ on the way to perhaps a record eight title.
What else to look for
Mark Cavendish. This guy is a gun and will no doubt win stages and plenty of them. Probably the fastest in the world and keen to finish the tour this year, Cavendish has eyes for the green jersey (points classification). Hushovd, Freire, Gert Steegmans, Heinrich Haussler and Davis will doing their best to prevent the rider from the Isle of Man. I also see the white jersey going to Andy Schlek, he is the most talented youngster and won the white last year so I cannot see that changing in 2009.
Other riders to watch include Liquigas pair Aleksandr Kuschynski and Roman Kreuziger.
Enjoy the contest.
What makes this edition of the tour so fascinating is the planning of the stages to hopefully keep the contest alive right until the end. Mount Ventoux on the penultimate day will no doubt be the highlight along with the return of the Team Time Trial and visits into Italy and Spain.
Predictions
Predicting the winner of a three week stage race and especially the Tour De France is near on impossible. I will however throw up some names that will at some stage during the race loom large.
Maillot Jaune (Yellow Jersey – Overall Winner)
Lance Armstrong (Astana) – The Boss is back! Lance is out of retirement and looking for an eighth title. Surely his age and the fact he has spent time out of the game will count against him but you dismiss Lance at your peril. He looked to be rounding into some solid form during the second week of the Giro (finishing 12th) and will definitely look to take over from teammate Contador if he slips up. Will be looking for revenge on Ventoux!
Alberto Contador (Astana) – Logical race favourite and is the premier cyclist in the world. A great climber, he has now conquered all the grand tours and the prestigious Paris-Nice. Very aggressive in the mountains and backed by the strongest team (Armstrong, Leipheimer, Kloden, Zubeldia and Popovych), he only has to get on top of his impatience that can sometimes see him make rookie mistakes.
Carlos Sastre (Cervelo Test Team) – Last year’s winner but perhaps not in the same class as some others. His stunning win on Alpe d’Huez set up his tour victory last year, but he has now changed teams and can be susceptible during time trials. Not sure his team is that strong (especially without Simon Gerrans) so it will be interesting to see how he goes.
Cadel Evans (Silence Lotto) – Runner up twice in a team considered weaker than its competitors. Evans knows how to consistently be right up there in the GC but it remains to be seen whether he has the ‘X-factor’ to be a tour champ. Skipped the Giro to follow his normal lead up for the race and is said to be in great form. Maybe could be a factor in the time trials but with little to no help in the mountains (teammate Thomas Dekker has already tested positive) it’s tough to see him on the top step of the podium.
Andy Schlek (Saxo Bank) – Youngest Schlek brother and winner of the white jersey (best young rider) last year, I really like his chances over the three weeks. Looked very strong in the mountains (maybe could have won the Alpe d’Huez climb but for team orders) last year and he isn’t bad in the time trials. Another positive is the fact he rides for a very strong team that took the title last year.
Denis Menchov (Rabobank) – Won the Giro d’Italia this year and was third in this race last year. The Russian will no doubt loom as the winner at some point. Very good in the Time Trial and climbing, Menchov is a very good overall rider. Will be strong in the Pyrenees but needs to be more consistent to take overall honours.
I see the winner coming from the names above. Definitely Contador is the man but if he isn’t feeling up to it look for Lance to quickly assume team leader status and aim for his eighth title. Apart from the above guys, look for Mick Rogers (Columbia-Highroad), Levi Leipheimer (Astana), Frank Schlek (Saxo Bank) and Christian Vande Velde (Garmin – Slipstream) to also ride well.
So to put it all on the line I’m selecting.
1. Alberto Contador
2. Andy Schlek
3. Cadel Evans
4. Denis Menchov
5. Lance Armstrong
Stages to watch
Stage One – Monaco Time Trial (Saturday 4 July) 15.5km
This year sees the return of the prologue (technically not a prologue but close enough for me!). Using part of the Formula One circuit and main GC contenders will look to flex their muscle early. Starting by the sea, the course includes some steep climbs and tricky hairpin turns. Maybe time trial specialist Fabian Cancellara can wear yellow or even Evans or Menchov?
Stage Four – Team Time Trial (Tuesday 7 July) 39km
Finally the Team Time Trial (TTT) is back at the tour. After a three year absence this year’s TTT is quite short, with the finishing time of the fifth rider (teams start with nine) counting. The course is apparently quite technical and will sort out the good teams from the poor. Obviously the Astana team would be favourites but don’t discount Saxo Bank, Garmin (who regard this as high priority) or even Liquigas.
Stage Seven – Barcelona to Andorre Arcalis (Friday 10 July) 224km
After entering Spanish territory the day before, the peloton takes on its first major mountain stage which also happens to be the longest. No doubt the temperature will be very high so while the tour may not be won on this stage it could definitely be lost. The GC contenders will have to be on their game to make sure they don’t lose early time to their rivals. Maybe a stage for Andy or Frank Schlek?
Stage Four – Colmar to Besancon (Saturday 18 July) 199km
Last flat stage before the final sprint along the Champs-Elysees. The finish is wide which will allow for a big bunch sprint ideally suited to flying machine Mark Cavendish. As its now well into second week some of the struggling teams my look to get in a breakaway to salvage something. Look for Cavendish, Thor Hushovd, Oscar Freire, Allan Davis or even Daniele Bennati.
Stage Twenty – Montelimar to Mont Ventoux (Saturday 25 July) 167km
While the Individual Time Trial on Stage 18 will be very important, this stage looms as the decider. Finishing at the summit of the dreaded Mount Ventoux, which includes gradients of over 9% throughout the 21.1km climb, the winner here will no doubt earn their victory. Armstrong has never won here and will look to conquer ‘the bald mountain’ on the way to perhaps a record eight title.
What else to look for
Mark Cavendish. This guy is a gun and will no doubt win stages and plenty of them. Probably the fastest in the world and keen to finish the tour this year, Cavendish has eyes for the green jersey (points classification). Hushovd, Freire, Gert Steegmans, Heinrich Haussler and Davis will doing their best to prevent the rider from the Isle of Man. I also see the white jersey going to Andy Schlek, he is the most talented youngster and won the white last year so I cannot see that changing in 2009.
Other riders to watch include Liquigas pair Aleksandr Kuschynski and Roman Kreuziger.
Enjoy the contest.
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