Australian motor sports fans will tune into tonight's German Grand Prix at the Nurburgring hoping our man can covert his first ever pole position into his first race win.
After 129 starts in the world's premier motor sport category, Webber is finally in a position to repay the faith and patience of his many fans throughout the country. Surely we will see him step to the top of the podium this time around. There is no doubt Webber is a good driver, however his career is littered with slow cars, poor career path decisions and shocking bad luck. While the performances of Braun GP and Red Bull have breathed new life into the series, Webber is enjoying his most impressive season to date. Currently sitting fourth in championship, a victory here will no doubt be the defining moment of his career and hopefully the launching pad for a late season championship challenge.
Webber will need to hold off the challenges from Brawn's Rubens Barrichello and Jenson Button who qualified second and third respectively.
Since making his debut in Melbourne for Minardi in 2002, Webber has raced with the hopes of a nation on his shoulders, trying to emulate the performances of past greats Alan Jones and Sir Jack Brabham. A well respected and much loved member of the F1 paddock, Webber is renowned for his hard work, determination and qualifying prowess. A victory in Germany will be a fitting reward and no doubt well received within the industry.
Congratulations on securing the first pole position by an Aussie in three decades and good luck!
One of the world’s great sporting events begins tonight in what shapes as one of the most intriguing races in its epic 105 year history. While doping continues to cast a damming shadow over the sport and its competitors, the return of Lance Armstrong and race favourite Alberto Contador will no doubt captivate cycling fans across the globe.
What makes this edition of the tour so fascinating is the planning of the stages to hopefully keep the contest alive right until the end. Mount Ventoux on the penultimate day will no doubt be the highlight along with the return of the Team Time Trial and visits into Italy and Spain.
Predictions
Predicting the winner of a three week stage race and especially the Tour De France is near on impossible. I will however throw up some names that will at some stage during the race loom large.
Maillot Jaune (Yellow Jersey – Overall Winner)
Lance Armstrong (Astana) – The Boss is back! Lance is out of retirement and looking for an eighth title. Surely his age and the fact he has spent time out of the game will count against him but you dismiss Lance at your peril. He looked to be rounding into some solid form during the second week of the Giro (finishing 12th) and will definitely look to take over from teammate Contador if he slips up. Will be looking for revenge on Ventoux!
Alberto Contador (Astana) – Logical race favourite and is the premier cyclist in the world. A great climber, he has now conquered all the grand tours and the prestigious Paris-Nice. Very aggressive in the mountains and backed by the strongest team (Armstrong, Leipheimer, Kloden, Zubeldia and Popovych), he only has to get on top of his impatience that can sometimes see him make rookie mistakes.
Carlos Sastre (Cervelo Test Team) – Last year’s winner but perhaps not in the same class as some others. His stunning win on Alpe d’Huez set up his tour victory last year, but he has now changed teams and can be susceptible during time trials. Not sure his team is that strong (especially without Simon Gerrans) so it will be interesting to see how he goes.
Cadel Evans (Silence Lotto) – Runner up twice in a team considered weaker than its competitors. Evans knows how to consistently be right up there in the GC but it remains to be seen whether he has the ‘X-factor’ to be a tour champ. Skipped the Giro to follow his normal lead up for the race and is said to be in great form. Maybe could be a factor in the time trials but with little to no help in the mountains (teammate Thomas Dekker has already tested positive) it’s tough to see him on the top step of the podium.
Andy Schlek (Saxo Bank) – Youngest Schlek brother and winner of the white jersey (best young rider) last year, I really like his chances over the three weeks. Looked very strong in the mountains (maybe could have won the Alpe d’Huez climb but for team orders) last year and he isn’t bad in the time trials. Another positive is the fact he rides for a very strong team that took the title last year.
Denis Menchov (Rabobank) – Won the Giro d’Italia this year and was third in this race last year. The Russian will no doubt loom as the winner at some point. Very good in the Time Trial and climbing, Menchov is a very good overall rider. Will be strong in the Pyrenees but needs to be more consistent to take overall honours.
I see the winner coming from the names above. Definitely Contador is the man but if he isn’t feeling up to it look for Lance to quickly assume team leader status and aim for his eighth title. Apart from the above guys, look for Mick Rogers (Columbia-Highroad), Levi Leipheimer (Astana), Frank Schlek (Saxo Bank) and Christian Vande Velde (Garmin – Slipstream) to also ride well.
So to put it all on the line I’m selecting.
1. Alberto Contador
2. Andy Schlek
3. Cadel Evans
4. Denis Menchov
5. Lance Armstrong
Stages to watch
Stage One – Monaco Time Trial (Saturday 4 July) 15.5km
This year sees the return of the prologue (technically not a prologue but close enough for me!). Using part of the Formula One circuit and main GC contenders will look to flex their muscle early. Starting by the sea, the course includes some steep climbs and tricky hairpin turns. Maybe time trial specialist Fabian Cancellara can wear yellow or even Evans or Menchov?
Stage Four – Team Time Trial (Tuesday 7 July) 39km
Finally the Team Time Trial (TTT) is back at the tour. After a three year absence this year’s TTT is quite short, with the finishing time of the fifth rider (teams start with nine) counting. The course is apparently quite technical and will sort out the good teams from the poor. Obviously the Astana team would be favourites but don’t discount Saxo Bank, Garmin (who regard this as high priority) or even Liquigas.
Stage Seven – Barcelona to Andorre Arcalis (Friday 10 July) 224km
After entering Spanish territory the day before, the peloton takes on its first major mountain stage which also happens to be the longest. No doubt the temperature will be very high so while the tour may not be won on this stage it could definitely be lost. The GC contenders will have to be on their game to make sure they don’t lose early time to their rivals. Maybe a stage for Andy or Frank Schlek?
Stage Four – Colmar to Besancon (Saturday 18 July) 199km
Last flat stage before the final sprint along the Champs-Elysees. The finish is wide which will allow for a big bunch sprint ideally suited to flying machine Mark Cavendish. As its now well into second week some of the struggling teams my look to get in a breakaway to salvage something. Look for Cavendish, Thor Hushovd, Oscar Freire, Allan Davis or even Daniele Bennati.
Stage Twenty – Montelimar to Mont Ventoux (Saturday 25 July) 167km
While the Individual Time Trial on Stage 18 will be very important, this stage looms as the decider. Finishing at the summit of the dreaded Mount Ventoux, which includes gradients of over 9% throughout the 21.1km climb, the winner here will no doubt earn their victory. Armstrong has never won here and will look to conquer ‘the bald mountain’ on the way to perhaps a record eight title.
What else to look for
Mark Cavendish. This guy is a gun and will no doubt win stages and plenty of them. Probably the fastest in the world and keen to finish the tour this year, Cavendish has eyes for the green jersey (points classification). Hushovd, Freire, Gert Steegmans, Heinrich Haussler and Davis will doing their best to prevent the rider from the Isle of Man. I also see the white jersey going to Andy Schlek, he is the most talented youngster and won the white last year so I cannot see that changing in 2009.
Other riders to watch include Liquigas pair Aleksandr Kuschynski and Roman Kreuziger.
Enjoy the contest.
The NHL’s free agency meat market is underway so I thought I’d give some thoughts on who changed addresses and what it may mean for their respective teams.
Great
Craig Anderson (G) – Colorado Avalanche. I think this deal is right up there with the best. The Avalanche had a terrible season behind Andrew Raycroft and Peter Budaj (see below), finishing last in the Western Conference. The 28 year old had a very good season in Florida as a backup, posting the third best save percentage (.924) and three shutouts. Those numbers were even better considering the protection offered from the Florida blue line. Will be given the controls as the number one guy.
Ian Laperriere (F) – Philadelphia Flyers. Wow how tough are the Flyers now? Firstly adding Chris Pronger earlier in the week was a significant move and now they have a great role player patrolling the checking lines. Laperriere was a fan favourite in Denver and will be missed. Chips in with the odd goal and can drop the gloves if required, making up somewhat for the loss of Knubble (see below). Only query is the 2 year deal for the 37 year old.
Sedin Twins (F) – Vancouver Canucks. Considering their initial demands where long term deals, the Canucks have done well to sign their leading scorers to 5 year deals which will give the club salary cap space in the future.
Mike Komisarek (D) – Toronto Maple Leafs. Great deal for the young Leafs, helping to add some grit to the blue line. Five years for $22.5 million isn’t a bad price to pay for one of the game’s best shutdown defensemen and a 2009 All-Star.
Nikolai Khabibulin (G) – Edmonton Oilers. Proven big time goalie going to a team in desperate need of a number one guy between the pipes. Given a rocket early in the season when placed on the waivers in Chicago, he answered his critics with 2.33 GAA and .919 save percentage. Despite some durability concerns the Oil managed to ink the 36 year old Russian for four years and $15 million. A previous Cup winner with Tampa, Khabibulin will need to be healthy and consistent for the Oil to reach the playoffs.
Jay Bouwmeester (D) – Calgary Flames. His rights were acquired by the Flames before the market opened and in the end it turned out to a masterstroke when they signed him to a 5 year deal worth $6.6 million a season. The move now creates a really formidable blue line with Dion Phaneuf and Robyn Regehr.
Rob Scuderi (D) – Los Angles Kings. A vital cog in the Pittsburgh Cup victory, Scuderi now resides on the West Coast. Not an offensive defensemen by any stretch but a solid shut down guy who can log some minutes on the penalty kill. Four years and around $14 million is up there for a relatively unknown but I still think this is a good move.
OK
Marian Gaborik (W) – NY Rangers. After dealing away Scott Gomez (see below) and his big deal they sign Gabby on another big contract. Not surprising given its NY! Gaborik if healthy is definitely one of the top talents in the league, but as we have seen over the years it’s a big if. Will hopefully gel with Chris Drury and relish been out of the Minnesota defensive system.
Sami Pahlsson (C) – Columbus Blue Jackets. More help up the middle for the Blue Jackets. A proven shut down specialist, Pahlsson will more than likely take the position held by the more offensively minded Manny Malhotra.
Mike Knubble (W) – Washington Capitals. Really good deal for the Caps. Two years for $5.6 million brings grit and scoring punch. Knubble keeps producing 20 goal seasons end on end and will no doubt reach that mark again. May even go higher surrounded by the offensive guns in the capital.
Dwayne Roloson (G) – NY Islanders. Good reliable veteran on his last contract at 39. Was solid and the main reason Edmonton stayed in the playoff race last season. Will get some starts when, not if, current Islanders number one Rick DiPietro goes down.
Mike Cammalleri (C/W) – Montreal. Was super playing alongside Jarome Iginla with a team leading 39 goals last season after coming across from LA. Will look to mesh with new Canadiens Gionta and Gomez but may not nudge the 40 goal mark. He is a fine player, however Montreal may have overpaid slightly (5 years at $30 million) and with Gomez’s big deal also now on the books this could be trouble into the future
John Madden (W) – Chicago Blackhawks. A good replacement for the departed Pahlsson. Getting long in the tooth now but a one year deal for the 36-year old makes sense now and for the expected squeeze on the Blackhawks roster this time next year.
Scott Clemmensen (G) – Florida. Benefited from super goalie Martin Broduer going down last season in New Jersey and was very solid in keeping the ship afloat. With Anderson jumping across to Denver, he now gets the chance to backup Tomas Vokoun who has a habit of beginning the season slowly. May get some early starts.
David Booth (F) – Florida Panthers. Continues to improve and resigning him makes perfect sense. Led the team in shots and tallied a career high 31 goals, which has now earnt him a six year extension.
Chris Neil (F) – Ottawa Senators. Haven’t the Senators slipped. While the Dany Heatley fiasco continues to play out at least the Sens have got something right. Neil is much loved and will be a welcome return to the line-up during difficult times in Ottawa.
Bad
David Koci (W) – Colorado Avalanche. Who? After losing Laperriere by offering well under the odds, they go out and sign a giant goon. Surely the Avs have enough grit down on the bottom lines to do without this guy.
Marian Hossa (W) – Chicago Blackhawks. Definitely a top player and will no doubt play well in the Windy City, but the length and amount on the contract (12 years for $63 million) is a worry. With the cap expected to come down next season, key free agents looming and large contracts already on the books (Campbell and Huet), GM Dale Tallon is hoping to knock off the Red Wings before trouble hits. Interesting times ahead for the Blackhawks.
Ty Conklin (G) – St Louis. Why St Louis? Sure they surprised a lot of experts by making the playoffs behind Chris Mason but I would have thought Conklin would make a run at a starting job somewhere else? Maybe Colorado, Philly or even back to the Oil?
Donald Brashear (W) – NY Rangers. Veteran goon who was signed to replace Colton Orr who fled to Toronto. Not sure this is a good move considering the issues it brings after the Blair Betts hit during the playoffs.
Ugly
Hal Gill (D) – Montreal Candieans. Big, slow defensemen who had a good season last year winning the cup while playing a shutdown role. It just doesn’t seem a good fit though and no where near an effective replacement for Komisarek. If called upon to play a lot of minutes it will be trouble.
Brian Gionta (W) – Montreal. Maybe an ok deal when you consider he is rejoining Scott Gomez, but 5 years and $25 million is a stretch. His production has plummeted after a great 48 goal season in 2005-06 and I just don’t think this move and some of the others made by Montreal will be effective. They have thrown the cash around but it remains to be seen where the value is.
Peter Budaj (G) – Colorado Avalanche. Surely has run out of chances in the number one chair in Denver. Pencilled in as the number one man last season, Budaj had a terrible season rotating the number one spot with the equally terrible Raycroft. Posting a .899 save % really indicated how soft his play was yet the new management ‘rewarded’ Budaj with an extension. If his shaky play continues look for him to spend some time with Lake Eire.
Tour De France preview coming up soon!
Braden Stokes
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